HHTG(600095) 华创证券·2024-10-28 17:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Xiangcai Co Ltd (600095) with a target price of 9.37 RMB, compared to the current price of 7.57 RMB [1] Core Views - Xiangcai Co Ltd's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a significant recovery in profits driven by its proprietary trading business [1] - The company's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.55 billion RMB, a 16.5% YoY increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 150 million RMB, a slight 2.9% YoY decrease [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 460 million RMB, a 19.5% YoY decrease, but net profit surged to 70 million RMB, a 437.6% YoY increase [1] Securities Business Analysis - Light capital business faced pressure, with Q1-Q3 fee and commission income at 410 million RMB, a 25.9% YoY decrease [2] - Proprietary trading business showed strong growth, with Q1-Q3 income of 397 million RMB, a 59.7% YoY increase, and Q3 income of 170 million RMB, a 291.5% YoY increase [2] - The average proprietary trading yield reached 2.21% in Q3, a significant improvement from previous quarters [2] - Asset management business grew, with Xiangcai Fund's non-monetary fund AUM reaching 6.315 billion RMB, a 40.7% YoY increase [2] Industrial Business Analysis - The industrial segment implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, with Q1-Q3 revenue of 411 million RMB, a 19.1% YoY decrease [2] - Most industrial revenue came from low-margin trade business, having minimal impact on overall net profit [2] Financial Projections - The report slightly raised earnings forecasts, expecting EPS of 0.07/0.08/0.09 RMB for 2024/2025/2026 [2] - Projected PB ratios are 1.80/1.78/1.75 for 2024/2025/2026, with weighted average ROE of 1.55%/1.82%/2.03% [2] - Total revenue is projected to be 2.321/2.195/2.332/2.452 billion RMB for 2023/2024/2025/2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 119/186/221/252 million RMB for 2023/2024/2025/2026 [3] Valuation and Investment Thesis - The report values Xiangcai Co Ltd at 2.2x PB for 2025 earnings, supporting the 9.37 RMB target price [2] - The company's "Internet + Securities" model and potential access to quality business resources through state-owned shareholders are seen as key advantages [2]