PDH(SH:600048) Ping An Securities·2024-10-29 00:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 182.77 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.81 billion yuan, down 41.2% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in profit is attributed to a 3.5 percentage point drop in gross margin to 15.9% and an increase in minority interest share by 14.8 percentage points to 36.2% [1]. - The company's sales performance is better than the top 100 real estate firms, with a signed contract amount of 241.69 billion yuan, down 27.9%, and a signed area of 13.496 million square meters, down 29.7% [1]. - The company has a cash recovery rate of 91%, with 219.6 billion yuan recovered from sales [1]. - The company is focusing on high-quality project expansion, with 99% of new land acquisitions in core cities [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the expected EPS is 1.12 yuan, 1.23 yuan, and 1.35 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.7x, 8.9x, and 8.1x [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable cash flow and optimize its land reserve structure, which may help it navigate through market cycles [2]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 364.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.415 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [3][9]. - The gross margin is expected to slightly improve to 16.1% in 2024, with a net margin of 3.7% [3][9]. Key Metrics - The company has a total market capitalization of 130.6 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 74.9% [4]. - The company has 652 ongoing and planned projects, with a total construction area of 87.13 million square meters [1]. - The cash flow from operating activities is projected to be negative in 2024, at -45.184 billion yuan, indicating potential liquidity challenges [8].