Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Orient Securities·2024-10-29 00:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.62 CNY based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.36 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, and a net profit of 1.31 billion CNY, down 2.8% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.20 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 22.0%, while net profit fell by 27.7% to 360 million CNY [1]. - The revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.11 billion CNY, 49 million CNY, and 91 million CNY, showing year-on-year changes of -3.1%, -27.4%, and +44.5% respectively. In Q3, the revenue for these categories was 1.14 billion CNY, 13 million CNY, and 21 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -22.7%, -55.3%, and +26.5% respectively [1]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 74.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 30.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.86 CNY, 3.17 CNY, and 3.54 CNY respectively, with a downward revision from previous estimates [2][7]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 6.006 billion CNY, with a slight growth of 0.7% year-on-year, followed by 6.565 billion CNY in 2025 and 7.277 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 9.3% and 10.8% respectively [3][7]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.716 billion CNY, with a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, followed by 1.903 billion CNY in 2025 and 2.126 billion CNY in 2026, indicating growth rates of 10.9% and 11.7% respectively [3][7].