Zhujiang Brewery(002461) Southwest Securities·2024-10-29 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.89 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit of 310 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year [1] - The product structure continues to upgrade, with Q3 showing both volume and price increases, driven by high-end product sales growth of 14.8% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 49.3%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 59.8% for the quarter, up 4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average price per ton increased by 4.5% year-on-year to 4,135 yuan/ton in Q3 2024 [1] - The company's net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 16.1% in Q3 2024, benefiting from lower raw material costs and product structure upgrades [2] Future Outlook - The company has a strong consumer base in South China, with significant potential for product structure upgrades, particularly in the high-end market [3] - The "3+N" brand strategy focuses on upgrading from regular pure beer to high-end products, aiming to consolidate market share in the 8 yuan and above price segment [3] - Long-term stable growth is expected as the proportion of high-end products increases, supported by a continuous decline in costs [3] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.37 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.49 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 26x, 22x, and 19x [3]