KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guoyuan Securities·2024-10-29 00:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 123.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.91%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.56%, and a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, which is a 13.23% increase year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor showed steady growth, with Moutai liquor revenue increasing by 16.32% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [2]. - The company’s direct sales channel grew rapidly, while the i Moutai channel faced short-term pressure, with a revenue of 4.52 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 18.37% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s overseas revenue grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.74% in Q3 2024 [2]. Financial Performance - The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin showed a slight decline in Q3 2024, with net profit margin at 48.23% and gross profit margin at 91.23% [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross profit margin remained stable at 91.69%, while the net profit margin was 49.40% [2]. - The company’s projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 85.97 billion yuan, 98.09 billion yuan, and 110.27 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 15.04%, 14.09%, and 12.41% [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23, 20, and 18, respectively, with a market capitalization of 1,958.22 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 173.86 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.47% [4][8].