贵州茅台：公司季报点评：直销增长亮眼，业绩符合预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 123.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, which is a 15.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The direct sales channel showed significant growth, with revenue from direct sales increasing by 23.5% year-on-year to 18.26 billion yuan, while wholesale revenue grew by 9.7% to 20.54 billion yuan [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 91.2%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to fluctuations in the product mix [3][4]. - The company expects EPS for 2024 to be 68.48 yuan per share, with a projected PE ratio of 25-30 times, leading to a fair value range of 1711.91 to 2054.29 yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1231.23 billion yuan, with a net profit of 608.28 billion yuan [2]. - Q3 2024 revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was 32.56 billion yuan and 6.25 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3% and 13.1% [3]. - The company’s cash flow from sales in Q3 2024 was 425.92 billion yuan, a 1.0% increase year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 174.80 billion yuan, 196.51 billion yuan, and 217.55 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.1%, 12.4%, and 10.7% [5][7]. - The net profit for the same years is expected to be 86.02 billion yuan, 97.02 billion yuan, and 107.96 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.1%, 12.8%, and 11.3% [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 26.31 in 2023 to 18.21 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook [7]. - The projected P/B ratio is expected to decline from 9.12 in 2023 to 5.53 in 2026, reflecting a more attractive valuation over time [7].