Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) Haitong Securities·2024-10-29 00:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a total revenue of 12.846 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.261 billion yuan, reflecting a 45.7% increase year-on-year [5]. - In Q3 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 4.800 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year [5]. - The company’s beer sales reached 3.4473 million kiloliters in the first three quarters, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, outperforming the industry average decline of 1.5% [5]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 45.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 maintaining a gross margin of 48.0% [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s operating expenses ratio decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 25.2% in Q3 2024, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency improvements [6]. - The company’s net profit margin and net profit margin excluding non-recurring items increased by 1.8 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points to 11.0% and 10.8%, respectively [6]. - The company’s sales cash collection was stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% to 5.009 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [6]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to have EPS of 0.34, 0.45, and 0.56 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][11]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range of 10.40 to 12.25 yuan based on a 12-15 times EV/EBITDA multiple for 2024 [7].