pingmei coal(601666) 海通证券·2024-10-29 00:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pingmei Shenma Energy Co., Ltd. is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 net profit remained stable quarter-on-quarter, with a total revenue of 23.32 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year change of +0.8% and -34.9% respectively [4] - The company is the largest producer and supplier of low-sulfur premium coking coal in China, with expectations for high-level long-term coking coal contract prices [7] - The company plans to increase investment in its Xinjiang subsidiary to enhance resource development and increase coal reserves [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a net profit of 652 million yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year and up 0.03% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The total revenue for the first three quarters was 23.32 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.9% [4] - The average selling price of commercial coal in Q3 was 918 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.7% [5] Production and Sales Data - The raw coal production for the first three quarters was 21.06 million tons, down 8.7% year-on-year, with Q3 production at 6.85 million tons, down 10.8% year-on-year [5] - The total sales volume of commercial coal for the first three quarters was 20.08 million tons, down 13.1% year-on-year [5] Investment and Expansion Plans - The company plans to invest 76.5 million yuan in its Xinjiang subsidiary to participate in resource development, which is expected to enhance its coal resource reserves [6] - The company is committed to acquiring high-quality assets to boost its performance, with plans to propose acquisition proposals within 36 months after the production of certain mines [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 3.425 billion, 3.798 billion, and 3.930 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.38, 1.53, and 1.59 yuan [8] - The company is expected to maintain a reasonable valuation range of 12.69 to 14.28 yuan based on a PE ratio of 8 to 9 times for 2024 [7]