Jiahe Foods(SH:605300) Haitong Securities·2024-10-29 00:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a downgrade [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.68 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year decline of 19.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 83 million yuan, down 59.88% year-over-year [3][4] - The revenue for Q3 2024 alone was 607 million yuan, showing a year-over-year decrease of 20.06%, with a net profit of 13.21 million yuan [3][4] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to rising oil costs and increased sales expenses [4][5] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue from powdered oil products decreased significantly by 42.17% to 835 million yuan, while coffee products saw a stable growth of 7.17% to 193 million yuan [5] - E-commerce channels experienced rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 106.29% to 42.88 million yuan [5] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 14.9%, down from 18.0% in 2023, indicating a decline in profitability [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.35 billion yuan, 2.75 billion yuan, and 3.15 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 116 million yuan, 184 million yuan, and 219 million yuan [6][9] - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.29 yuan, 0.46 yuan, and 0.55 yuan respectively [6][9] Valuation - The company is assigned a PE valuation range of 20-25 times for 2025, resulting in a fair value range of 9.20 to 11.50 yuan per share [6][8]