GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 国信证券·2024-10-29 02:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [4][6]. - The revenue growth rate improved in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 15.58%, significantly higher than the 4.9% growth in the second quarter. This improvement is attributed to adjustments in traditional sales channels and the performance of the e-commerce channel [4][5]. - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by new product launches in the e-commerce channel and the ongoing expansion of high-growth channels such as overseas and bulk snack channels [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the third quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 563 million yuan, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.58% and 17.10%, respectively [4][6]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was 36.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in channel structure [5][6]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 11.4%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased personnel costs from hiring new sales staff [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its revenue growth momentum into the fourth quarter, with ongoing improvements in both traditional and e-commerce channels [5][6]. - Long-term growth prospects remain strong due to the company's leading position in niche categories and its robust product innovation capabilities [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.25 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 3.25 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 20.5%, and 19.9% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 392 million yuan, 464 million yuan, and 553 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 19.1%, 18.4%, and 19.2% [6].