Zhujiang Brewery(002461) 国信证券·2024-10-29 02:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][6][8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.887 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 808 million yuan, up 25.35% year-on-year [4][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, with a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 10.60% year-on-year [4][6] - The company's sales growth outperformed the industry, with a volume increase of 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, while the national beer production decreased by 4.1% [4][5] - The gross margin improved by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year due to product structure upgrades and lower raw material costs, with a net profit margin of 16.1% in Q3 [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.733 billion, 6.056 billion, and 6.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.6%, 5.6%, and 5.5% respectively [2][6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 800 million, 905 million, and 1.018 billion yuan, with growth rates of 28.4%, 13.1%, and 12.5% respectively [2][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.36, 0.41, and 0.46 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][6] Market Position and Strategy - The core product, 97 Pure Draft, has strengthened its market penetration, particularly in Guangdong, where the company has increased its market share [5][6] - The company has launched high-end products such as Zhujiang P9 and Zhujiang 1985 to enhance its product matrix and support long-term premiumization [5][6]