Shijiazhuang Shangtai Technology (SZ:001301) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-29 02:11Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of 69.35 to 76.65 CNY per share, indicating a premium of 10% to 22% over the current stock price [6][4]. Core Insights - The company, Shangtai Technology, is a leading player in the lithium battery anode sector, with steady growth in performance in Q3 2024. The company achieved a revenue of 36.2 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and a net profit of 5.78 billion CNY, up 1.72% year-on-year [1][16]. - The company has seen a significant increase in anode material sales, with a total of 148,000 tons sold in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a growth of over 55% year-on-year [2][22]. - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with plans to increase its anode production capacity to 340,000 tons by the end of 2024 [3][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24%. The net profit for the same period was 2.21 billion CNY, up 35% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter [1][16]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 24.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points, while the net margin was 14.5%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][19]. Production and Sales - The company’s anode product sales reached approximately 64,000 tons in Q3 2024, with an estimated profit per ton of 3,400 to 3,500 CNY, although this represents a decrease of 8% to 10% from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected anode sales of 65,000 to 70,000 tons in Q4 2024 [2]. Capacity Expansion - By the end of 2023, the company’s domestic anode production capacity reached 240,000 tons, with plans for an additional 100,000 tons from the North Su Phase II project expected to be operational by the end of 2024 [3][7]. - The company is also establishing a subsidiary in Malaysia to build a 50,000-ton anode production facility, with an investment of approximately 1.54 billion USD (about 10.9 billion CNY) [3][7]. Market Outlook - The global demand for lithium battery anodes is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing production of electric vehicles and energy storage systems. The report forecasts that global anode shipments will rise from 910,000 tons in 2021 to 2,980,000 tons by 2030 [12][14]. - Shangtai Technology is positioned among the top five global anode manufacturers, holding a market share of 7.9% in 2023 and 8.8% in the first half of 2024 [14][15]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 8.13 billion CNY, 9.53 billion CNY, and 11.27 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 17%, and 18% [4][25].