云铝股份：电解铝产能满产，盈利弹性增加

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][17]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance with a 31% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2024. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 39.19 billion yuan, up 31.7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.82 billion yuan, reflecting a 52.5% increase [1][5]. - The company benefits from a stable power supply and full production capacity in the aluminum sector, with Q3 2024 aluminum production increasing by 9.8% year-on-year to 797,000 tons [1][5]. - The company is recognized as the largest green low-carbon aluminum supplier in China, with over 80% of its electricity sourced from green energy in the first half of 2024, significantly reducing carbon emissions compared to coal-powered aluminum [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 14.54 billion yuan, a 20.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, up 31.4% year-on-year [1][5]. - The average spot price for electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2024 was 19,440 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan per ton from the previous quarter, while the price of alumina increased by 220 yuan per ton to 3,950 yuan [2][6]. - The company expects revenues of 52.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.1%, and net profits of 4.71 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 19.1% [2][15]. Production and Capacity - The company has maintained a stable annual production capacity of 1.4 million tons for alumina, with steady production levels [1][5]. - The company has achieved a production surplus of approximately 3% in Q3 2024 due to favorable water supply conditions in Yunnan [1][5]. Future Projections - The company projects aluminum spot prices of 19,900 yuan per ton for 2024, with expected revenues of 54.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 55.4 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a gradual growth trend [2][15]. - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.36 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.73 yuan in 2025 and 1.81 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.0x, 5.8x, and 5.6x respectively [2][15].