Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Huafu Securities·2024-10-29 02:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [5][12]. Core Views - The company is showing signs of a bottoming out in its fundamentals, with expectations for recovery momentum [2]. - The external macro environment presents challenges, particularly affecting the sales of mid-to-high-end liquor products [3]. - The company is focusing on strategic single product development while enhancing the promotion of series products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, a decline of 22.04% year-on-year, with a net profit of 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year [2]. Product Segmentation - High-end liquor revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 4.112 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.09%, accounting for 96.71% of total revenue [3]. - In Q3 2024, high-end liquor revenue was 1.139 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue increased by 44.47% to 91 million yuan [3]. Channel and Market Analysis - The company's direct sales and wholesale channels generated revenues of 135 million yuan and 4.117 billion yuan respectively, with direct sales up 48.01% and wholesale down 3.86% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Anhui province, where Q3 2024 revenue was 9.52 billion yuan, down 22.09% year-on-year [4]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 71.91%, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin decreased by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% compared to the same period last year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 1.739 billion yuan in 2024, 1.996 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.249 billion yuan in 2026 [5]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 15, 13, and 11 times for the respective years [5].