新宝股份2024Q3点评：外销延续高增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 4.967 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 343 million yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.53% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 12.690 billion yuan, up 17.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 785 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 6.66% [1] - The difference in growth rates between net profit and non-recurring net profit is mainly due to foreign exchange contract impacts [1] - Q3 external sales continued to show strong growth, with external sales reaching 4.192 billion yuan, up 20.14% year-on-year, while internal sales decreased [1] Revenue Analysis - Q3 revenue breakdown shows internal sales at 775 million yuan (up 15.30% year-on-year) and external sales at 4.192 billion yuan (up 20.14% year-on-year) [1] - The company expects Q4 to see a recovery in profitability, driven by new product launches and market warming trends [1] Profitability Analysis - Q3 gross margin was 20.9%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to intensified competition in the domestic market [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 was 6.9%, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.8 percentage points but an increase of 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its revenue forecast and slightly adjusts its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 17.049 billion yuan, 19.613 billion yuan, and 22.278 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.4%, 15.0%, and 13.6% [2][3]