MANGO(300413) Soochow Securities·2024-10-29 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a 5% year-on-year decrease in revenue for Q3 2024, amounting to 3.32 billion yuan, with gross profit declining by 24% to 990 million yuan, resulting in a gross margin drop of 7 percentage points to 30% [2] - The effective membership scale of Mango TV has exceeded 70 million, reaching a new peak, with monthly active users at 268 million, ranking among the top three in the long video industry [3] - The report anticipates that the company's leading position in the variety show sector and the launch of quality dramas will drive membership growth, leading to a revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 down to 1.75 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.22 billion yuan respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a 5% decline in revenue to 3.32 billion yuan, with gross profit down 24% to 990 million yuan and a gross margin of 30% [2] - The pre-tax profit decreased by 6% to 470 million yuan, with a tax rate of 18%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 26% to 380 million yuan [2] Content and User Growth - Mango TV's variety show viewership continues to rise, with effective views reaching 2.5 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, and a significant increase in the number of new seasonal variety shows [2] - The effective viewing share of member content has risen to 79%, up 16% year-on-year, indicating strong engagement with premium content [2] Membership and Market Position - The company has successfully increased its effective membership base to over 70 million, supported by strategic partnerships and a focus on quality content [3] - The collaboration with various partners has enhanced user engagement and contributed to the growth of the membership business [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.75 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.22 billion yuan, reflecting increased content investment pressures on profit margins [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28, 25, and 22 times for 2024-2026 [3]