保利发展：业绩承压，夯实经营

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][12]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to a decrease in project turnover and industry-wide impacts, leading to a larger decline in net profit compared to revenue [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company remains the industry leader in sales, with a signed sales amount of 241.69 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2024, a decline of 27.89% year-on-year, but outperforming the top 10 real estate companies which saw a 32.5% decline [2][3]. - The company is focusing on core cities, expanding into 24 projects with a total land acquisition amount of 41.5 billion yuan, with 67% of this in first-tier cities [2][3]. - The company is actively reducing its asset-liability ratio, which stands at 74.89%, down 1.66 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 182.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.81 billion yuan, down 41.23% [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 43.53 billion yuan, a decline of 21.62% year-on-year, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, down 63.31% [2][3]. Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a sales recovery rate of 91% in the first nine months of 2024, with total sales of 219.6 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company ranked first in total sales among the top 100 real estate companies, maintaining its position from the previous year [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from industry supply-side clearing, with long-term market share potentially increasing as high-margin projects enter the turnover phase [3]. - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 10.8 billion yuan, 11.29 billion yuan, and 11.93 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.5%, +4.5%, and +5.7% respectively [3].