贵州茅台：2024年三季报点评：业绩符合预期，延续稳健增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 123.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year [1][2] - In Q3 2024 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year growth [1][2] - The report highlights the resilience of Moutai's demand and sales in a weak external consumption environment, with a notable increase in the opening rate of Moutai liquor and accelerated destocking at the terminal level [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Moutai's gross margin slightly decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 91.2%. The overall expense ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 8.2%, leading to a net profit margin decline of 0.9 percentage points to 50.0% [3] - Cash flow showed slight pressure, with sales cash receipts of 42.59 billion yuan in Q3, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, while contract liabilities decreased by 12.8% year-on-year [3] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, Moutai liquor generated revenue of 32.56 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year, attributed to increased supply and price adjustments. Series liquor revenue was 6.25 billion yuan, growing 13.1% year-on-year, though growth slowed due to controlled supply [2] - Revenue from wholesale channels in Q3 was 20.54 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase, while direct sales revenue reached 18.26 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The company is on track to meet its annual revenue growth target of around 15%, supported by the dual drivers of Moutai liquor and series liquor [4] - Moutai plans to repurchase shares worth 3 to 6 billion yuan to enhance investor confidence [4] - The company is focusing on three transformations in the domestic market and expanding into overseas markets to ensure sustainable growth [4] Earnings Forecast - EPS is projected to be 68.53 yuan, 76.83 yuan, and 84.72 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 23x, 20x, and 18x [4][5]