JINZAI FOOD GROUP CO.(003000) 西南证券·2024-10-29 03:01Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 210 million yuan, up 61.2% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 70 million yuan, up 42.6% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to launch a new product, "溏心鹌鹑蛋" (soft-boiled quail eggs), in Q4 2024, which is anticipated to drive category upgrades [2] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30.3%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and optimized supply chain efficiency [2] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 12.2%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting high-quality development [2] Product and Channel Development - The company continues to focus on three major healthy protein categories: leisure fish products, poultry products, and bean products, with product innovation such as deep-sea anchovies and short-shelf-life bean curd [2] - Sales growth for small fish products, quail eggs, and meat products in the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 15%+, 30%+, and 15%+, respectively [2] - The company is advancing its omnichannel strategy, with traditional distribution channels seeing increased coverage, modern channels boosting brand momentum, and snack channels achieving growth through SKU expansion [2] Supply Chain Strengthening - The company has established an upstream quail breeding base through related parties, providing customized, high-quality raw materials for quail egg products [3] - The company's subsidiary in Kenya, established in 2018, has successfully imported wild anchovies to China, marking a breakthrough in global supply chain construction [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 320 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 500 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.70 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.11 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18x, 14x, and 11x [3] - The company's revenue growth rate for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 18.76%, 23.68%, and 22.27%, respectively [4] - Net profit growth rates for 2024-2026 are expected to be 50.87%, 25.86%, and 25.61%, respectively [4] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin is expected to increase from 28.17% in 2023 to 31.87% in 2026 [8] - The net profit margin is projected to rise from 10.27% in 2023 to 13.48% in 2026 [8] - ROE is expected to grow from 16.15% in 2023 to 24.23% in 2026 [8]