Haohua Energy(601101) 民生证券·2024-10-29 03:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 6.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.119 billion yuan, up 10.74% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 2.109 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.95% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million yuan, down 13.96% year-on-year and 36.04% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company aims to achieve a coal production capacity of 30 million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and is actively seeking quality coal mine projects in resource-rich areas [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, coal production and sales reached 14.0454 million tons and 14.0574 million tons, respectively, both up 10.0% year-on-year. The average selling price of coal was 431.8 yuan/ton, down 2.7% year-on-year, while the cost was 203.9 yuan/ton, up 4.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, coal production was 4.5437 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.5%. The sales volume was 4.5556 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.4% [1] - The company's methanol production and sales for Q1-Q3 2024 were 332,500 tons and 306,400 tons, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 51.5% and 40.6%. The methanol business had a gross margin of -6.5%, indicating a reduction in losses [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 1.270 billion yuan, 1.456 billion yuan, and 1.625 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.88 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.13 yuan per share [2][4] - The PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 11, 9, and 8 times, respectively, based on the closing price on October 28, 2024 [2][4]