SCIE(SH:600546) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-29 03:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's production and sales have improved while costs have decreased, leading to a quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 performance [1][3] - The company is expected to face a decline in revenue and profit margins in the coming years, with projected revenues of 336.70 billion, 321.64 billion, and 309.69 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4] - The report indicates that the coal business has seen a decrease in revenue but has managed to maintain a growth trend in production and sales volume [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 79.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.84% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.68% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 7.91 billion, down 14.40% year-on-year but up 11.82% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average coal price in Q3 was 633 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.25% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.33% [3] Production and Sales - The coal production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 24.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.72%, while sales volume was 33.11 million tons, down 15.99% [3] - In Q3 2024, coal production was 9.12 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.81% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.96% [3] Cost and Profitability - The average unit cost in Q3 was 404 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 3.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.05% [3] - The gross profit margin for the company is projected to be 39.1% in 2023, decreasing to 33.6% in 2024 [4] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) is 1.50, 1.63, and 1.74 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 8.9X, 8.2X, and 7.7X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3]