北新建材：稳健经营，防水保持增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.364 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.145 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.069 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year [4][5]. - In the third quarter alone, the company reported a revenue of 6.767 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 931 million yuan, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 910 million yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company expects a slight increase in gypsum board sales, with continued expansion in the waterproof segment, supported by its state-owned enterprise background and financial advantages. The consolidation of Jiaboli is also expected to contribute significantly [4][5]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 30.7%, slightly down from 30.8% in the same period last year. The gross margin for the third quarter was 30.1%, down from 32.0% year-on-year [5]. - The company maintained a good control over its expense ratios, with a total expense ratio of 13.4% for the first three quarters, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio for the third quarter was 14.7%, also up by 0.6 percentage points [5][6]. - The cash collection ratio for the first three quarters was 86.2%, a slight decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net cash ratio was 86.1%, an increase of 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to strengthen its long-term growth logic, with stable profitability and continued realization of pricing power. Despite weak demand, the gross margin for gypsum board remains high [6]. - The company is expanding its product categories, with expected revenue growth from existing channel resources such as light steel keel and boards, as well as robust growth in the waterproof business and contributions from the coatings segment [6]. - Forecasted earnings for 2024 and 2025 are 4 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan, respectively, with price-to-earnings ratios of 13 and 12 times [6].