KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Orient Securities·2024-10-29 03:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1794.90 CNY [4][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong resilience against risks, with a projected completion of its annual targets without issues. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 120.78 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 60.83 billion CNY, up 15.0% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is actively controlling the volume of its core products to stabilize prices, which is beneficial for long-term product health. The diversified product system significantly enhances its risk resistance capabilities, with an expected annual growth rate of 15% [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 173.27 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 85.94 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 15.0% [3][10]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 is reported at 91.5%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 52.2%, down by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 68.41 CNY, with subsequent years projected at 76.37 CNY for 2025 and 86.67 CNY for 2026 [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has increased its domestic distributor count by 25 to 2122 by the end of Q3 2024, indicating a robust distribution network [1]. - The company’s contract liabilities as of Q3 2024 were 9.93 billion CNY, down 12.8% year-on-year, suggesting effective management of liabilities [1].