舍得酒业：释放压力，轻装上阵

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure due to adjustments in inventory management, particularly in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, which saw a revenue decline of 35.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [4][5] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is focusing on its core products and has a long-term growth strategy, which supports the maintained "Recommendation" rating [7] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 44.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.0%, with a net profit of 6.7 billion yuan, down 48.3% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.78 billion yuan, down 79.2% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 63.7%, a decline of 10.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by product mix [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100 to 200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in its long-term strategy [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 57.43 billion yuan in 2024, 60.31 billion yuan in 2025, and 66.46 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - Net profit forecasts have also been revised to 933 million yuan for 2024, 984 million yuan for 2025, and 1.085 billion yuan for 2026 [6] Key Financial Ratios - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 11.8% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 11.6% by 2026 [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 24.3 in 2024, decreasing to 20.9 by 2026 [10]