深南电路：各项研发项目进展顺利，受益IC载板国产替代

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.92%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.488 billion yuan, up 63.86% year-on-year [3] - The overall gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 25.91% (up 2.8 percentage points YoY) and 11.40% (up 1.8 percentage points YoY), respectively [3] - The company is actively seizing opportunities in AI acceleration, automotive electrification/intelligence trends, and demand recovery in certain sectors, enhancing market development efforts and optimizing product structure [3] - The company is progressing well in various R&D projects, including PCB technology for communications, data centers, and automotive electronics, as well as capacity building for FC-BGA substrates [3][5] - The company is a leading domestic IC substrate enterprise benefiting from domestic substitution, with a projected global PCB market compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2023 to 2028 [4] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects net profits of 2.098 billion yuan, 2.537 billion yuan, and 3.076 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 26, 21, and 18 times [5] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 18.26 billion yuan in 2024 to 26.30 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit growth from 2.10 billion yuan to 3.08 billion yuan during the same period [4][5] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase from 4.65 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.00 billion yuan in 2026 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its capabilities in BT-type packaging substrates and has made steady progress in the development of storage products and processor chip products [5] - The new factory in Guangzhou has rapidly increased production capacity for FC-BGA packaging substrates, with 16-layer and below products now in mass production [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in capital expenditures by major global cloud service providers, particularly in AI server-related demand [5]