证券代码：002916 证券简称：深南电路 深南电路股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 编号：2026-05 | | --- | | 投资者关系 | √特定对象调研 □现场参观 | □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □媒体采访 □新闻发布会 | □业绩说明会 | | | □路演活动 券商策略会 ） | √其他 （ | | | 润晖管理香港、善水源资管、中移资本控股、红土创新、招商基金、鹏华基金、招银理财、 | | | | 国新投资、国联基金、永赢基金、银华基金、PingAn of China Asset Management HK Company | | | | Ltd、安本集团、诺德基金、华宝信托、华夏基金、创金合信、广发证券、建信理财、上海明 | | | | 泫、嘉实基金、平安基金、3W Fund、农银汇理基金、景顺长城基金、摩根士丹利基金、淡 | | | | 水泉投资、宝盈基金、招商证券、漳州市国有资本运营集团、魔寓私募基金、东方证券、中 | | | | 邮基金、信泰人寿保险、北京鸿道投资、十溢投资、华泰保兴、国寿安保、天弘基金、富达 | | | | 基金、弘 ...

Accessible version 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Technology - Asia-Pacific (H/A) Overview of AI PCB – competition, spec migration, and checks on B/S & CF Industry Overview PCB/CCL upgrade triggered by AI; HDI vs HLC Thanks to rising AI server demand, high-end PCB (and its upstream materials) have turned more critical as it supports communication among substrates (with die/chip atop) and other components, with a faster data-rate, larger bandwidth and longer range/distance of data transmission across different ...

以下文章来源于21世纪资管研究院 ，作者21世纪资管研究院 21世纪资管研究院 . 21世纪资管研究院是南方财经全媒体集团旗下致力于资管领域政策和业务研究的独立智库，研究院宗 旨：探索全球资管发展新趋势，求解国内资管发展新问题，搭建资管人才成长大平台，促进资管行业健 康长远发展。 记者丨 叶麦穗 | | Q 请输入查找内容 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 持股数量(万股) | | | 持股市值(万元) | | | 序号 | | 代码 、 了 名称 。 ▽ 明 。 | | 下期 = | 变动 ミ | 本期 | 下期 = | 变动 ♥ | | | 001979.SZ | 招商蛇口 | ,234.7987 | 21.378.3487 | 856.4500 | 192,108.66 | 217,417.81 | -25,309.15 | | 2 | 000408.SZ | 藏格矿业 | .950.0000 | 1,800.0000 | 150.0000 | 164,580.00 | 10 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the AI server and PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly the advancements in materials and technology related to AI platforms and their components. Key Points AI Platform Upgrade - The new generation AI server architecture has shifted from "mid-board + CP board" to "switch backplane/orthogonal backplane + computing board," significantly increasing the requirements for backplane layers and material performance [1] - The Virtuoso cabinet inherits the GB300 design and upgrades materials, resulting in a 2x increase in PCB value, with each unit requiring 5 LPU cabinets and 1 CPU cabinet, all needing high-end PCBs [1] - This architectural adjustment is expected to increase PCB quantity by 2-3 times and value by 4-5 times, leading to a substantial rise in demand for copper-clad laminates (CCL) [1] Production Timeline - Core product mass production timelines are set: Rubin is expected to start mass production in Q3 2026, with PCB/CCL materials confirmed by late Q2 to early Q3; Alt in Q4 2026; and Fermi in the second half of 2027, with design completion in 2026 [1] Material Demand and Certification - M9 and M10 materials are projected to see explosive demand, with M9 CCL demand reaching millions of units by 2026 and increasing to 20-30 million units by 2027 alongside the Rubin platform [2] - M10 material certification has begun, with Nvidia requiring a loss factor (Df) of 0.0003. The competitive materials include PTFE (best electrical performance) and hydrocarbon resin + M10 filler, with PTFE outperforming M9 by 20%-30% [2] - M9 solutions have been confirmed, utilizing either "hydrocarbon resin + Q fabric" or "PTFE + fiberglass-free fabric," with a stable yield of 90% for M9 CCL, ready for mass production [2] Supply Chain and Pricing - The supply side is highly concentrated, with CTE fabric currently in severe shortage, priced at 120 RMB/kg, expected to rise further in 2026. New production capacity is anticipated to be released in the second half of 2026 [3] - Q fabric is primarily supplied by Asahi Kasei and domestic suppliers, with domestic prices 20%-30% lower than overseas [3] - Price increases for CCL are expected in 2025 due to rising costs of glass fabric and copper foil, with a projected 20%-30% increase in prices being passed down to end-users by April 2026 [3] PCB Market Dynamics - Due to the surge in PCB demand and value, existing suppliers are unable to meet capacity, prompting Nvidia to onboard new suppliers to ensure supply and reduce costs, with 2-4 suppliers per material number [4] - Key suppliers for LPU and CPU boards are identified, with a notable shift in market share towards new entrants like Jingwang Electronics and Dongshan Precision, while traditional players like Shenghong Technology see a decline in market share despite increased absolute order volumes [4] Copper Foil Specifications - Specifications for copper foil are being upgraded in line with material advancements, with M9 requiring HVP4 copper foil and M10 requiring HVP5/HVP6, with demand for HVP4 expected to reach 8,000-30,000 tons by 2027 [4] - Domestic manufacturers like Tongguan and Longdian Huaxin are accelerating the replacement of foreign suppliers due to price advantages [4] Market Potential - The market potential for CCL is significant, with GB300 cabinets requiring 50 CCLs and 60 PPs, while Rubin Ultra cabinets require 200 CCLs and 240 PPs. The value of core products is highlighted, with LPU boards valued at 20,000-30,000 RMB each and next-generation switch backplanes exceeding 800,000 RMB [5] - The global demand for M9 CCL is projected to reach 20-30 million units by 2027, corresponding to an area of over 20 million square meters, indicating a market size of several billion RMB [5] - Key beneficiaries across various segments are identified, including Shengyi Technology in CCL, Feilihua in electronic fabric, Jingwang Electronics in PCB manufacturing, and Tongguan Copper Foil in copper foil [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **AI hardware, software, and cloud sectors** in China, highlighting the global AI investment cycle and its implications for various sectors and stocks [1][2][6]. Core Insights 1. **Global AI Investment Cycle**: - Investors are keen on identifying sectors and stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing global AI investment cycle [1]. - The discussion emphasized the potential of **CPO (Co-package optics)** as a megatrend, with debates on its ability to replace traditional pluggable transceivers and copper cables in AIDC networking [1][2]. 2. **China's AI Value Chain**: - Investors are looking for opportunities in China's AI value chain, particularly in companies that are less exposed to geopolitical risks [1][6]. - Key beneficiaries identified include **Zhongji InnoLight (300308 CH)**, **Shengyi Technology (600183 CH)**, **Victory Giant (300476 CH)**, **Accelink (002281 CH)**, and **Shennan Circuits (002916 CH)**, all rated as "Buy" [1][11]. 3. **CPO Market Dynamics**: - CPO is expected to have a larger Total Addressable Market (TAM) in scale-up networks, but it is not anticipated to disrupt transceiver companies in scale-out networks [2]. - Leading transceiver companies like **InnoLight** and **Eoptolink** are expected to maintain strong fundamentals, with investors showing interest in the CPO value chain beneficiaries [2]. 4. **PCB/CCL Sector**: - The PCB/CCL sector in China is projected to benefit from volume upticks driven by GPU and ASIC platform upgrades starting in the second half of 2026 [3]. - Concerns about competition and stretched valuations were noted, with interest in both leading players and smaller companies that may gain market share [3][5]. 5. **China's Domestic AI Supply Chain**: - Investors are focusing on "local champions" in China's AI supply chain, which are less affected by the "de-coupling" trend [6]. - Companies like **Cambricon (688256 CH)** and LLM developers such as **Zhipu (2513 HK)** and **MiniMax (0100 HK)** are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]. 6. **Software Sector Concerns**: - There is a prevailing caution among investors regarding the software sector, particularly concerning the impact of LLMs on traditional software business models [7]. - While some believe the "LLM killing software" narrative is exaggerated, concerns about growth outlook and valuations persist [7]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation Concerns**: Many investors expressed worries about stretched valuations across various sectors, particularly in optical components and software [2][3][7]. - **Supply Chain Bottlenecks**: Investors are actively seeking insights into supply bottlenecks and key beneficiaries in the upstream supply chain, especially in light of shortages in materials like glass fiber and copper foil [5][6]. - **Investment Timing**: Investors are waiting for more favorable entry points in the software sector, looking for signs of accelerating top-line growth and margin improvements before committing [7]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape in the AI and related sectors in China.

证券代码：002916 证券简称：深南电路 | 投资者关系 | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □现场参观 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 | | | | | | | | | | □路演活动 （ ） | | | √其他 | 券商策略会 | | | | | 活动参与人 | 银华基金、富国基金、永赢基金、景顺长城基金、兴证全球基金、太平资产、泰康资产、 | | | | | | | | | 员（排名不 分先后） | 博时基金、诺安基金、汇添富基金 | | | | | | | | | 上市公司 | 战略发展部总监、证券事务代表：谢丹 | | | | | | | | | 接待人员 | | | | | | | | | | 时间 | 2026 年 3 月 17 日-20 日 | | | | | | | | | 地点 | 电话及网络会议、机构投资者所在地、华创证券策略会 | | | | | | | | | 形式 | 电话及网络会议、实地调研 | | | | | ...

Core Insights - The demand for PCB is driven by scale, speed, and integration, with a focus on the progress of substrate integration, backplane development, and optical-copper fusion [3][6] - The data center PCB market is projected to grow from $12.5 billion in 2024 to $23 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.7% from 2024 to 2030 [13] - Key technological advancements include substrate integration with CoWoP, backplane applications in Kyber racks, and the integration of optical systems in EOCB [18][23][34] PCB Sector - The expansion of computing clusters is leading to increased demand for high-layer, high-density, and high-speed interconnect PCBs [6][12] - The integration of complex functions through substrate and backplane technologies is enhancing PCB capabilities [6][12] - The introduction of CoWoP technology by Nvidia aims to improve signal integrity and reduce power loss, although challenges remain in mSAP process and supply chain constraints [18][19] CCL Sector - The transition to M9-M10 specifications is driven by the need for higher speed and cost-driven price increases [5][37] - The dielectric performance of CCL must be upgraded to ensure signal integrity as speeds and frequencies increase [5][37] - The main materials for CCL are expected to see significant price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand from AI applications [58][63] Key Companies - Key players in the PCB sector include Huadian Co., Shennan Circuit, Shenghong Technology, and others, with a focus on high-layer and high-density PCB production [76] - Huadian Co. is a core supplier for switches and ASIC PCBs, while Shennan Circuit leads in data communication PCBs and packaging substrates [76] - Shenghong Technology is involved in Nvidia's interconnect definitions, focusing on capacity expansion and breakthroughs in ASIC and switch technologies [76] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the progress of high-speed CCL certification and the sustainability of price increases [3][5] - Companies like Huadian Co. and Shenghong Technology are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI and high-speed interconnect technologies [76] - The focus on high-end materials and technologies in the PCB and CCL sectors presents significant investment opportunities as demand continues to rise [58][63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by AI, communication, and automotive sectors, with a notable increase in PCB business [3][8] - The company has achieved breakthroughs in packaging substrate technology and accelerated customer onboarding, contributing to high growth in this segment [3][8] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 23.65 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 32% [7][8] - The estimated EPS for 2026 is RMB 8.54, with a projected PE ratio of 29.8 [5][7] - The EBITDA for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 4.84 billion, with a growth rate of 47.1% [7][11] Business Segments - PCB business revenue is projected to be RMB 14.36 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 37% [8] - The packaging substrate business is expected to generate RMB 4.15 billion in revenue for 2025, with a growth rate of 31% [8] Market Position - The company is anticipated to rank fourth among global PCB manufacturers by revenue in 2025 [8] - The global PCB market is projected to grow from USD 85.2 billion to USD 123.3 billion from 2025 to 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 8% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) with a target stock price of 256 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.647 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 32.05%, and a net profit of 3.276 billion CNY, which is a 74.47% increase year-over-year [6][9]. - The company is focusing on three major growth opportunities: AI computing power upgrades, increasing demand in the storage market, and the electrification and intelligence of automobiles [9]. - The company is enhancing its market development efforts and improving product technology competitiveness, leading to an optimized product structure [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2025: Revenue of 23.647 billion CNY, net profit of 3.276 billion CNY [6]. - 2026: Projected revenue of 31.923 billion CNY, net profit of 5.341 billion CNY [8]. - 2027: Expected revenue of 41.500 billion CNY, net profit of 6.897 billion CNY [8]. - 2028: Forecasted revenue of 53.951 billion CNY, net profit of 8.909 billion CNY [8]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin for 2025 is 28.32%, an increase of 3.49 percentage points year-over-year [9]. - Net margin for 2025 is 13.86%, an increase of 3.37 percentage points year-over-year [9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS for 2025 is projected at 4.81 CNY, increasing to 7.84 CNY in 2026 and 10.12 CNY in 2027 [8]. Business Segment Performance - **PCB Business**: - Revenue of 14.359 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 36.84%, accounting for 60.73% of total revenue [9]. - Gross margin of 35.53%, up by 3.91 percentage points year-over-year [9]. - **IC Substrate Business**: - Revenue of 4.148 billion CNY, a year-over-year growth of 30.80%, representing 17.54% of total revenue [9]. - Gross margin of 22.58%, an increase of 4.43 percentage points year-over-year [9]. - **Electronic Assembly Business**: - Revenue of 3.075 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 8.93%, accounting for 13.00% of total revenue [9]. - Gross margin of 15.00%, up by 0.60 percentage points year-over-year [9]. Market Outlook - The global PCB industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by high-frequency, high-precision, and high-integration trends, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.7% for high-layer boards and 10.9% for packaging substrates over the next five years [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Shennan Circuit, with a target price adjusted to RMB288, reflecting a 15.1% upside from the current price of RMB250.23 [3][7]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuit's FY25 revenue increased by 32% YoY to RMB23.6 billion, slightly above forecasts, with a gross profit margin (GPM) improvement to 28.3% [1][2]. - Net profit rose 75% YoY to RMB3.3 billion, slightly below consensus but above internal estimates, indicating strong operational performance [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from robust demand for multilayer PCBs driven by AI infrastructure capital expenditures, while the substrate business is anticipated to improve gradually due to tight supply conditions [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E are RMB30.7 billion, RMB37.8 billion, and RMB46.4 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 29.8%, 23.2%, and 22.8% [2][8]. - Gross profit margins are expected to improve to 30.1% in FY26E, 31.1% in FY27E, and 31.6% in FY28E, reflecting enhanced cost efficiency and product mix [2][8]. - Net profit forecasts for FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E are RMB5.05 billion, RMB6.84 billion, and RMB8.69 billion, with significant YoY growth rates of 54.1%, 35.5%, and 27.0% [2][8]. Market Position and Shareholding - Shennan Circuit has a market capitalization of approximately RMB166.8 billion, with a significant shareholding of 64% held by AVIC International Holdings Ltd [4][5]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 30.1% increase over the past three months [6]. Growth Drivers - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for PCBs, particularly from AI data centers, which account for about 25% of PCB revenue, and telecom, which represents around 40% [7]. - The substrate segment is expected to see gradual improvement, supported by resilient demand for BT substrates and increasing domestic demand for ABF/FC-BGA products [7].