Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) (603816) 光大证券·2024-10-29 03:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's foreign trade business continues to grow, with the "1+N+X" channel strategy steadily advancing [2] - Despite a decline in domestic sales due to weak real estate market conditions, the company has secured large-volume orders in advantageous categories through strategic partnerships, leading to growth in foreign sales [4] - The company's customized business is experiencing rapid growth, supported by product and store optimization, as well as the transformation of the whole-home empowerment system [4] - The company is accelerating the integration of large stores and promoting the development of a full-category home furnishing strategy, with the number of comprehensive stores continuously increasing and retail capabilities strengthening [5] - The company's gross profit margin has declined, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin domestic sales and an increase in low-margin foreign sales [5] - The company's valuation is at a historical low, and it is expected to continue gaining market share as a leading soft furnishing company, exploring innovative business models [5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 460 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 13.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [3] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points, and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 9.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [5] - In Q3 2024, the company's operating cash flow was 920 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7% [5] Financial Forecasts - The report revises the company's 2024 revenue forecast downward to 18.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.3%, while maintaining the 2025-2026 revenue forecasts [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.82 billion yuan, 2.05 billion yuan, and 2.36 billion yuan, respectively, with downward revisions of 11.8%, 7.7%, and 4.7% [5] - The EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 2.21 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 2.87 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 11x [5] Expense Management - The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - In Q3 2024, the company's expense ratio was 17.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7 percentage points, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 2.4 percentage points [6] - The increase in the financial expense ratio is mainly attributed to reduced foreign exchange gains, with the average USD/RMB exchange rate in Q3 2024 at 7.17, a decrease of 0.08 yuan compared to Q3 2023 [6] Historical Financial Data - The company's revenue in 2022 and 2023 was 18.01 billion yuan and 19.21 billion yuan, respectively, with a growth rate of -1.81% and 6.67% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 and 2023 was 1.81 billion yuan and 2.01 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 8.87% and 10.70% [7] - The ROE (diluted) for 2022 and 2023 was 20.40% and 20.88%, respectively [7]