温氏股份：2024年三季报点评：利润扩张势头强劲，资产负债表持续修复

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company [1] Core Views - The company's pig farming business has shown strong profitability, with a head profit of 692.10 RMB per pig in Q3 2024, a 161.51% increase from Q2 [4] - The company's chicken farming business also achieved good profitability, with a profit of 1.24 RMB per kilogram in Q3 2024, despite a slight decrease from Q2 [5] - The company's balance sheet and cash flow are expected to continue improving, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.86% at the end of Q3 2024, down 4.09 percentage points from Q2 [4] - The company's revenue and net profit are forecasted to grow steadily, with 2024/2025/2026 revenue expected to be 105.07/112.95/123.61 billion RMB and net profit to be 10.60/10.71/11.76 billion RMB [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 28.64 billion RMB, a 21.89% year-on-year increase, and net profit of 5.08 billion RMB, a 3097% year-on-year increase [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 75.38 billion RMB, a 16.53% year-on-year increase, and net profit was 6.41 billion RMB, a 241.47% year-on-year increase [3] - The company's EPS for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.9664 RMB, a 126.74% year-on-year increase, and ROE was 17.60%, a 29.79% year-on-year increase [3] Business Operations - The company sold 7.19 million pigs in Q3 2024, with a sales price of 19.48 RMB per kilogram and an estimated comprehensive cost of 13.8 RMB per kilogram [4] - The company sold 323.01 million chickens in Q3 2024, a 15.21% increase from Q2, with a sales price of 13.14 RMB per kilogram and an estimated cost of 11.8-12.0 RMB per kilogram [5] - The company's pig sales target for 2024 is 30-33 million pigs, with 21.56 million pigs sold in the first three quarters, achieving 71.87% of the target [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024/2025/2026 EPS is forecasted to be 1.59/1.61/1.77 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 11.70/11.57/10.54x [6] - The company's 2024/2025/2026 revenue growth rate is expected to be 16.87%/7.50%/9.43%, and net profit growth rate is expected to be 265.86%/1.06%/9.78% [6]