安井食品24Q3点评：新品扎实亮眼，盈利短期扰动

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a solid performance in new products, although profitability experienced short-term disturbances [1] - Q3 revenue reached 3.53 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 240 million yuan, a decrease of 36.8% [1] - The company expects to benefit from seasonal demand in Q4 and the recovery of the restaurant chain, with new product iterations and strong channel capabilities anticipated to drive growth [1] Revenue Analysis - Q3 revenue breakdown by product categories showed frozen prepared foods and frozen dishes with revenue changes of -0.1% and +24.1% respectively, with standout performances from fresh-keeping packaging, grilled sausages, and crayfish [1] - Regional revenue growth in Q3 varied, with East China and South China showing positive growth of +0.9% and +11.8% respectively, while North China and Southwest China experienced declines of -5.4% and -4.8% [1] Profitability Metrics - Q3 gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 19.9%, primarily due to increased promotional activities and a higher proportion of lower-margin frozen dishes [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 fell by 4.5 percentage points to 6.9% [1] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 15.2 billion, 16.8 billion, and 18.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +8.0%, +10.6%, and +10.2% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.45 billion, 1.67 billion, and 1.90 billion yuan for the same period, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -2.0%, +15.0%, and +14.2% [2] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the forecasted years are 20.76, 18.58, and 16.15, indicating that the stock is trading at historical low valuation levels [2] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are projected to be 2.43, 2.00, and 1.89 for the next three years [2]