XUEDA(SZ:000526) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-29 05:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][10]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.19 million yuan in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 2.247 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.3% [1][4]. - The report indicates that the company's revenue performance in Q3 was impacted by seasonal factors, particularly in personalized education, and anticipates a marginal improvement in revenue for Q4 [1][9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in contract liabilities, which grew by 18.1% year-on-year, suggesting potential revenue recovery in the upcoming quarter [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 627 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, but the net profit decreased by 49.7% due to non-operating asset disposal losses [1][4]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 2.3%, down by 2.9 percentage points, while the gross margin slightly declined to 32.2% [8][9]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.247 billion yuan, with a net profit of 176 million yuan, marking a 50.2% increase year-on-year [1][4]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company’s revenue growth in Q4 is expected to improve marginally, driven by the normalization of class consumption and an increase in the proportion of group classes [1][9]. - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to 223 million, 280 million, and 348 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 12%, 16%, and 20% [1][9]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.83, 2.29, and 2.85 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26x, 21x, and 17x [1][10][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 60 billion yuan, with a closing price of 48.46 yuan [3][10].