HAI TIAN(SH:603288) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-29 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 50 yuan [1][2]. Core Views - The company's operational momentum continues, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 9.4% to 20.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, and a net profit growth of 11.2% to 4.82 billion yuan [1][2]. - In Q3 2024, revenue reached 6.24 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, driven by new products and online sales, as well as pre-holiday inventory buildup by distributors [2]. - The gross margin improved to 36.6%, benefiting from lower raw material prices and production scale effects, although net profit margin remained stable at 21.8% due to increased R&D and financial expenses [2]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth for the full year, supported by a low base in Q4 2023 and early inventory preparations for the Spring Festival [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 24.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, while 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 10.1% to 27.04 billion yuan [3]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 5.63 billion yuan, down 9.2%, with a forecasted increase of 11.1% to 6.25 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.12 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40 [3]. Market Dynamics - The company has seen a significant increase in online sales, with a year-on-year growth of 45.4% in Q3, while offline sales grew by 8.1% [2]. - The number of distributors increased to 6,722, with 48 new additions in Q3 [2]. - Regional performance varied, with the eastern region showing a strong growth of 19.9%, while the western region experienced a slight decline of 0.8% [2]. Future Outlook - The management transition and employee stock ownership plan are expected to enhance operational efficiency and morale, contributing to sustained growth [2]. - The report highlights the potential for revenue acceleration through new product launches and channel feedback, while also advising caution regarding fluctuations in soybean prices due to external factors [2].