Anjoy food(SH:603345) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-10-29 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's main products performed well in Q3 2024, with new retail channels showing strong growth, while special channels experienced a decline [2] - The decline in net profit in Q3 2024 is primarily attributed to a decrease in government subsidies and increased marketing and promotional expenses [2] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 7%, 11%, and 12% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit forecasts showing a slight decline in 2024 followed by recovery in subsequent years [3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.08 billion yuan (+7.8%) and a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan (-6.7%) [1] - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 3.53 billion yuan (+4.6%), while net profit dropped to 240 million yuan (-36.8%) [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 22.6% (+0.6 percentage points), while the net margin was 9.6% (-1.5 percentage points) [2] Product Performance - Revenue from frozen prepared foods, frozen dishes, and frozen agricultural products showed varied growth, with frozen prepared foods increasing by 13.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue from frozen prepared foods decreased slightly by 0.1%, while frozen dishes increased by 24.1% [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from new retail channels grew significantly by 95.9% in Q3 2024, while special direct sales channels saw a decline of 12.4% [2] - Overall revenue from distributors increased by 9.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company has experienced a decline in net profit margins due to increased competition and higher expenses related to marketing and promotions [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 19.9% (-2.0 percentage points) [2] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.08 billion yuan, 16.71 billion yuan, and 18.66 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 1.41 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4% year-on-year, followed by a recovery of 15% in 2025 and 2026 [3]