AVICHM(600765) 国金证券·2024-10-29 06:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [3] Core Views - The company's large forging machine is expected to enter a harvest period, and Hongshan Company is accelerating its development [4] - The company's actual performance growth is better than the apparent growth, demonstrating the resilience of the forging industry leader [4] - Commercial and civil engineering sectors maintain strong growth, with continuous improvement in profitability [4] - Hongshan Company's development is entering a fast track, driving overall profitability improvement [4] - Inventory increased by 19.24% compared to 24Q2, possibly due to delayed delivery of some products [4] - Fixed assets increased, and some capital expenditures are expected to enter the harvest period [4] Financial Performance - 24Q1-Q3 revenue: 7.524 billion (-5.6% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.013 billion (-1.4% YoY) [4] - 24Q3 revenue: 2.052 billion (-16.7% YoY, -27.3% QoQ), net profit attributable to shareholders: 290 million (+16% YoY, -27.7% QoQ) [4] - 24Q1-Q3 civil aviation revenue increased by 88.55%, and civil product revenue increased by 34.18% [4] - 24Q3 gross margin: 33.7% (+2.7pct YoY, +2.2pct QoQ), net margin: 14.1% (+4.0pct YoY, -0.1pct QoQ) [4] - 24Q3 Hongshan forging loss narrowed to 19.81 million, compared to 59.53 million in 24H1 [4] Future Projections - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: 1.568/1.885/2.268 billion, with YoY growth of 18.0%/20.2%/20.3% [4] - Corresponding PE ratios: 21/18/15 times [4] Industry Analysis - The company is a leader in the aviation forging industry, with the release of high-end capacity expected to further enhance market share and profitability [4] - The domestic large aircraft industry is experiencing an upward trend, potentially opening up new market opportunities [4]