XINJI ENERGY(601918) Haitong Securities·2024-10-29 06:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinjie Energy (601918) is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance in coal and electricity generation is stable, with a focus on transformation and efficiency improvements in the coal-electricity integration [4][6] - The company achieved a net profit of 6.49 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will grow to 23.4 billion yuan in 2024, with an estimated EPS of 0.90 yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 91.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 18.2 billion yuan, both down 5% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 alone, the company generated a net profit of 6.49 billion yuan, which is a 12.2% increase from the previous quarter [4] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was 562 yuan per ton, up 3.1% year-on-year [5] Coal Business Analysis - The coal production and sales volume for the first three quarters were 13.88 million tons and 13.79 million tons, respectively, down 6.7% and 9.5% year-on-year [5] - The average sales cost of coal was 341 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit from coal business for the first three quarters was 30.5 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year [5] Power Generation Analysis - The company’s electricity sales volume in Q3 increased significantly by 86% quarter-on-quarter, with a total generation of 39.94 billion kWh [6] - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 4% to 0.3992 yuan per kWh in Q3 [6] - The company is progressing steadily with its coal and renewable energy projects, which are expected to enhance its power generation capacity and profitability [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.4 billion yuan, 23.6 billion yuan, and 31.1 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 9.02 to 10.82 yuan based on a PE ratio of 10 to 12 times for 2024 [7] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory due to its coal-electricity integration strategy [7]