扬农化工：业绩符合预期，看好葫芦岛项目投产

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 8.016 billion yuan, down 13.57% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.026 billion yuan, down 24.62% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, up 4.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, up 10.87% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the production of the Huludao project, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue and profit once operational [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 8.016 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.57% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.026 billion yuan, down 24.62% year-on-year. The third quarter showed a revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, an increase of 4.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, up 10.87% year-on-year [1]. - The company's product prices have seen a decline, with the raw material business generating 4.821 billion yuan in revenue at a price of 63,400 yuan per ton, down 20.13% year-on-year [1]. Market Position and Pricing - Current market prices for the company's products are at historical lows, with key products like the insecticide "Kungfu" priced at 107,000 yuan per ton, and glyphosate at 25,200 yuan per ton, both reflecting significant declines [1]. - The company has ongoing construction projects worth 1.609 billion yuan, primarily for the Huludao base, which includes the production of various pesticide raw materials [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 1.403 billion yuan, 1.766 billion yuan, and 2.051 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.45, 4.34, and 5.05 yuan. The current market capitalization corresponds to PE ratios of 17.71X, 14.08X, and 12.10X for the same periods [2][4].