温氏股份：2024年三季报点评：养殖景气上行，业绩逐季兑现

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant growth, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 28,662 million yuan and net profit of 5,081 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses to profits [1] - The company's pig and yellow chicken businesses have seen improved profitability due to rising prices, with pig prices fluctuating around 19 yuan/kg and yellow chicken prices above 13 yuan/kg in Q3 2024 [3] - The company has achieved significant cost reductions in piglet production and feed costs, with piglet production costs decreasing by 80-90 yuan per head and feed costs decreasing by 300-400 yuan per ton [4] - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to continue growing, with projected revenues of 101,400 million yuan, 108,480 million yuan, and 115,320 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, and net profits of 10,017 million yuan, 10,528 million yuan, and 10,366 million yuan for the same periods [4] Business Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company sold 21,561,900 pigs and 870 million broilers, with pig prices and yellow chicken prices contributing to strong profitability [3] - The company's piglet production costs have decreased significantly, and feed costs have also been reduced, which will positively impact the overall cost structure of pig farming [4] - The company's production efficiency has improved, and the scale of farming has expanded, leading to a reduction in fixed costs per pig [4] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 13% in 2024, 7% in 2025, and 6% in 2026, reaching 101,400 million yuan, 108,480 million yuan, and 115,320 million yuan, respectively [6] - Net profit is projected to increase by 257% in 2024, followed by 5% growth in 2025 and a slight decline of 2% in 2026, with net profits of 10,017 million yuan, 10,528 million yuan, and 10,366 million yuan, respectively [6] - The company's ROE is expected to improve significantly, from -19% in 2023 to 24% in 2024, 22% in 2025, and 18% in 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 12.49x in 2024, 11.88x in 2025, and 12.07x in 2026 [6] - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease from 4.04x in 2023 to 3.05x in 2024, 2.56x in 2025, and 2.21x in 2026 [6] - The P/S ratio is forecasted to decline from 1.48x in 2023 to 1.23x in 2024, 1.15x in 2025, and 1.08x in 2026 [6]