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美光科技：快速迭代HBM产品，收入和利润率水平或超预期
MUMicron Technology(MU) 华兴证券·2024-10-29 06:45

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Micron Technology (MU US) and sets a target price of 148.00[1][5][6].CoreInsights−MicronisexpectedtorapidlyiterateitsHBMproducts,leadingtorevenueandprofitmarginsthatmayexceedexpectations[1].−TheHBMbusinessmarketshareisprojectedtocontinueincreasingfrom2024to2026,withsignificantcapitalexpendituresplannedtoenhanceproductioncapacity[2][16].−ThehighdemandforHBMproducts,particularlydrivenbyAIapplications,isanticipatedtosupportpricingstabilityinthehigh−endsegment[3][15].−OperatingprofitmarginsforMicronareexpectedtoimprovesignificantlyinthe2025and2026fiscalyears,drivenbyahighercontributionfromHBMrevenueandrecoveryinDRAMandNANDmargins[4][17].SummarybySectionsHBMBusinessOutlook−Micron′sHBMmarketshareisexpectedtoriseto11148.00 [1][5][6]. Core Insights - Micron is expected to rapidly iterate its HBM products, leading to revenue and profit margins that may exceed expectations [1]. - The HBM business market share is projected to continue increasing from 2024 to 2026, with significant capital expenditures planned to enhance production capacity [2][16]. - The high demand for HBM products, particularly driven by AI applications, is anticipated to support pricing stability in the high-end segment [3][15]. - Operating profit margins for Micron are expected to improve significantly in the 2025 and 2026 fiscal years, driven by a higher contribution from HBM revenue and recovery in DRAM and NAND margins [4][17]. Summary by Sections HBM Business Outlook - Micron's HBM market share is expected to rise to 11% by 2025, supported by increased capital expenditures and advancements in HBM3E and HBM4 technologies [2][16]. - The global demand for HBM driven by AI chips is projected to reach 23.6 billion GB by the end of 2025, while supply from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix is expected to be 20.1 billion GB, indicating a supply shortage [3][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Micron show significant growth, with expected revenues of 38.65 billion in 2025 and 44.85billionin2026[5][8].−TheGAAPoperatingprofitmarginisprojectedtoreach27.544.85 billion in 2026 [5][8]. - The GAAP operating profit margin is projected to reach 27.5% in 2025 and 32.0% in 2026, driven by an increase in HBM revenue contribution [4][17]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price of 148.00 reflects a substantial upside potential of 41% from the current price of 105.05,basedonasum−of−the−parts(SOTP)valuationapproach[5][6][19].−ThevaluationincludesestimatesforDRAM,NAND,andotherbusinesssegments,alongwithnetcashof105.05, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [5][6][19]. - The valuation includes estimates for DRAM, NAND, and other business segments, along with net cash of 9.08 billion [19]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the high-end HBM products will remain in short supply through 2025-2026, supporting price stability [3][15]. - Micron's strategy includes a focus on long-term contracts with customers, which has increased the predictability of revenue and operational stability [28][30]. Product Development and Innovation - Micron is advancing its product offerings by skipping HBM3 and directly developing HBM3E and HBM4, with successful validation from Nvidia [18][34]. - The company is also enhancing its production efficiency and reducing costs through technological innovations in DRAM and NAND manufacturing processes [24][26].