太阳纸业：季报点评：三季度业绩略超预期，盈利韧性突出

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.93 CNY, based on a 1.7x PB valuation for 2024 [2][23]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 30.975 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.459 billion CNY, up 15.08% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 10.451 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.99% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.09%. However, net profit for Q3 was 701 million CNY, down 20.84% year-on-year and 12.61% quarter-on-quarter [1][10][11]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance Overview - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, showcasing strong profitability resilience at the cycle's bottom. The net profit for Q3 decreased by 12.6% to 701 million CNY, primarily due to weak industry demand, intensified supply competition, and declining paper prices. Additionally, fixed asset clearance at the Nanning base negatively impacted profits by approximately 99 million CNY [1][11][20]. Business Segment Analysis - Cultural Paper: Prices are on a downward trend due to weakened downstream demand and increased competition, leading to a forecasted decline in profitability for Q3 [14][18]. - Containerboard: Prices remained low amid flat demand, with a slight decrease in average market prices by 1% in Q3. The cost structure is expected to improve, potentially stabilizing profitability [16][18]. - Dissolving Pulp: Benefiting from high demand in the viscose staple fiber sector, prices increased by 2% in Q3, with a slight decrease in wood chip costs, leading to improved profitability [17][19]. Industry Outlook - The overall industry is expected to maintain low levels of prosperity in Q4, with paper prices likely to remain weak. The company is optimizing its capacity layout across various bases, with several projects expected to commence production between 2024 and 2025, enhancing its competitive strength [20][22].