Kouzijiao(603589) 国泰君安·2024-10-29 07:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 49.92 CNY [4][6][13]. Core Insights - The company has entered an adjustment phase due to constrained consumer power, resulting in performance below expectations. However, profitability remains relatively high, and pre-sale indicators are healthy, suggesting potential for recovery [2][4][14]. - The report forecasts a decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 2.58 CNY, 2.70 CNY, and 2.83 CNY, down from previous estimates of 3.24 CNY, 3.53 CNY, and 3.77 CNY respectively [4][13]. - Despite the current adjustment period, the company is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer goods valuation and industry average comparisons, which supports the target price [4][13]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.195 billion CNY and a net profit of 362 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year declines of 22.04% and 27.02% respectively [14]. - The gross margin showed significant fluctuations, while the net margin remained high at 30.28%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 2.38 percentage points [14]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.45 billion CNY, down 8.6% from the previous year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [5][14]. Market Position - The company is currently facing challenges in both domestic and external markets, with revenue declines of 22% and 26% respectively in Q3 2024 [14]. - The company is undergoing channel and product reforms, which are expected to take time but may lead to performance recovery as the industry cycle improves [14].