Sinopec Corp.(600028) 天风证券·2024-10-29 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [4][11]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was significantly impacted by a sharp decline in oil prices, leading to a 9.8% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 790.4 billion yuan and a 52.15% drop in net profit to 8.544 billion yuan [1]. - Natural gas production exceeded planned growth, with a 4.7% year-on-year increase, while oil production saw a slight decline of 0.2% [2]. - The refining sector continues to face pressure due to weak industrial demand, with diesel production down 14.2% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 790.4 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year; net profit was 8.544 billion yuan, down 52.15% [1]. - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 54.022 billion yuan, 57.968 billion yuan, and 68.729 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3]. Production and Cost Management - Oil and gas equivalent production for Q3 2024 was 128 million barrels, a 1.7% increase year-on-year, with natural gas production growing by 4.7% [2]. - Despite a 4% decline in revenue for the oil segment, profits increased by 16.6% due to effective cost control measures [2]. Refining and Chemical Sector - Refining throughput in Q3 2024 was 64 million tons, down 4.7% year-on-year, with total refined oil sales at 39 million tons, down 5.2% [3]. - The refining unit profit was reported at -0.3 USD per barrel of oil equivalent, a decrease of 2.4 USD year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand and inventory losses [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14.5, 13.5, and 11.4 respectively, with expected dividend yields of 4.8%, 5.2%, and 6.1% for A-shares [3].