XfmGroup(SH:603225) Xinda Securities·2024-10-29 07:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.197 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.31%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.91% to 746 million yuan [1] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 17.924 billion yuan, up 11.91% year-on-year and 6.56% quarter-on-quarter, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 65.41% year-on-year and 57.23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.6%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, with the third quarter margin at 4.9%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.009 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -7.1%, followed by 1.464 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of 45.0%, and 1.762 billion yuan in 2026 with a growth rate of 20.4% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.66 yuan in 2024, 0.96 yuan in 2025, and 1.16 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.81, 12.28, and 10.20 respectively [1][3] - The average gross profit margin is expected to improve to 5.9% in 2024, 7.0% in 2025, and 7.1% in 2026 [3] Industry Insights - The company is experiencing a seasonal decline in product gross margins and inventory devaluation, leading to a decrease in quarterly profits [1] - The average Brent crude oil price for the first three quarters of 2024 was $81.6 per barrel, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1] - The demand side shows a steady performance, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase in per capita clothing consumption expenditure in the first three quarters of 2024 [1]