Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.90 yuan, up from the previous target of 7.40 yuan [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by the Alashan project, which supports its ongoing growth [3] - The company achieved revenue of 10.372 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.04%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.805 billion yuan, up 19.84% year-on-year [9] - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.13%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 596 million yuan, up 31.30% year-on-year [9] - The outperformance in Q3 was partly due to the profit contribution from the coal sector, while the core business performance was in line with expectations [9] Market and Industry Analysis - The soda ash market faced oversupply in Q3 2024, with prices declining due to reduced demand from the glass industry, particularly in photovoltaic and float glass production [9] - Domestic soda ash apparent consumption in the first nine months of 2024 was 26.06 million tons, up 23.56% year-on-year, but September saw a slight decline of 0.15% year-on-year and 11.85% month-on-month [9] - Photovoltaic glass and lithium carbonate production grew significantly year-on-year, with photovoltaic glass production reaching 21.3 million tons (up 47.38%) and lithium carbonate production at 500,000 tons (up 64.56%) in the first nine months of 2024 [9] - Export volume of soda ash in September 2024 increased by 128.86% year-on-year to 128,500 tons [9] Company Growth and Projects - The Alashan natural soda ash project's first phase has reached production capacity, with an annual output of 5 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda [9] - The second phase of the Alashan project has been initiated, planning to add 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda annually [9] - The company's low-cost expansion strategy, leveraging its natural soda ash production method, ensures long-term growth [9] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 16.206 billion yuan, up 34.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 2.509 billion yuan, a 78.0% increase year-on-year [10] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted at 0.67 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.93 yuan, respectively [10] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 10.5% in 2023A to 16.0% in 2024E, 16.3% in 2025E, and 16.5% in 2026E [10] Valuation and Comparables - The report values the company at 11.31x PE for 2025E, based on comparable companies [9] - Comparable companies include Sanyou Chemical, Zhongyan Chemical, and Yuntu Holdings, with average PE ratios of 22.52x for 2023A, 14.20x for 2024E, and 11.31x for 2025E [12]
远兴能源2024年三季报点评:24Q3业绩略超预期,二期项目持续推进
Yuanxing Energy(000683) 国泰君安·2024-10-29 07:42