MANGO(300413) Haitong Securities·2024-10-29 08:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies [4][7] - The effective membership of the company has surpassed 70 million, with significant contributions from popular shows like "Singer 2024". The international app downloads increased from 130 million to 210 million, with a target of 260 million for the year [5][6] - The company has a rich reserve of key variety shows and dramas, which are expected to drive future performance growth. Upcoming shows include "Women's Reasoning Society 2" and "Time Music Conference 4" [6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was 3.318 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year [4][7] - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.00, 1.16, and 1.37 yuan per share, respectively. The estimated reasonable value range for 2025 is 34.80 to 40.60 yuan per share [7][11] Revenue Forecast - The company's revenue forecast for 2024 is 14.777 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The revenue from internet video is expected to be 8.836 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.60% [9][11] - The advertising revenue is projected to decline to 3.426 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.00% year-on-year, while membership revenue is expected to grow to 5.410 billion yuan, an increase of 25.37% [9][11] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as iQIYI and Netflix, with a projected P/E ratio for 2025 of 30-35 times, indicating a competitive valuation in the market [10][11]