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24Q3 TCL电子电视出货量简报点评:外销超预期驱动销量高增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2][4] Core Insights - The report highlights that TCL Electronics has shown significant improvement in both sales volume and structure, particularly in the North American market, driven by the upcoming Black Friday sales [2] - The company's revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of HKD 95.8 billion, HKD 104.2 billion, and HKD 110.2 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 9%, and 6% [1][2] - The report emphasizes the high certainty of performance and a dividend payout ratio exceeding 50%, indicating a balance of growth and value [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 79.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach HKD 1.32 billion in 2024, representing a 78% increase from the previous year [1][2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from HKD 0.29 in 2023 to HKD 0.52 in 2024, and further to HKD 0.64 in 2025 [1][2] Sales Performance - In Q3 2024, TCL's television shipment volume increased by 20%, with domestic sales growing by 5% and international sales by 20-25% [1][2] - The report notes that the sales structure has improved, with significant growth in high-end products such as miniled and large-screen televisions [2] Market Position - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the market, with a focus on high-margin products and a strong presence in both domestic and international markets [2] - The report indicates that TCL's stock is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]