Anjoy food(SH:603345) Ping An Securities·2024-10-29 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Anjoy Food [2][7] Core Views - Despite demand-side disturbances, the main business of Anjoy Food shows resilience [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 11.077 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.047 billion yuan [3][4] - The company continues to focus on developing 3-5 strategic big products each year, optimizing product structure, and increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end products [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [3][4] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 22.64%, up 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 9.59% [4] - The company’s revenue from frozen prepared foods, frozen dishes, and other product categories showed varied growth, with frozen prepared foods increasing by 13.88% [5] Sales Channel Performance - The new retail channel saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 41.95% year-on-year, while the direct sales channel experienced a decline of 14.53% [5][7] - The company’s revenue from the domestic market was primarily driven by the East China region, which generated 4.750 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.58% [7] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 1.499 billion yuan, 1.656 billion yuan, and 1.806 billion yuan respectively [7] - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.11 yuan, 5.64 yuan, and 6.16 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.0, 16.3, and 14.9 [7][10]