AHHL(SH:600761) Guotou Securities·2024-10-29 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Heli is maintained at "Buy - A" with a 12-month target price of 21.48 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 18.61 CNY [5][8]. Core Views - The company has shown steady overseas growth and is expected to benefit from a cyclical recovery in domestic demand. The revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached 13.409 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.101 billion CNY, up 11.63% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.4 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 298 million CNY, down 9.18% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first nine months was 21.53%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.82%, up 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Dynamics - Domestic sales of forklifts in China for the first nine months totaled 616,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.17%, while exports reached 354,300 units, up 19.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting the economy, which may lead to improved domestic sales performance [2]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 18.09 billion CNY, 19.72 billion CNY, and 22.03 billion CNY, with growth rates of 3.5%, 9.1%, and 11.7% respectively. Net profits are projected to be 1.46 billion CNY, 1.6 billion CNY, and 1.81 billion CNY, with growth rates of 14.2%, 9.4%, and 13.4% respectively [4][10].