Haohua Energy(SH:601101) Tebon Securities·2024-10-29 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haohua Energy (601101.SH) is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Haohua Energy's production capacity is gradually being released, with significant growth in coal production and sales expected. The company has also increased its dividend payout ratio, enhancing shareholder value [4][7]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Haohua Energy achieved operating revenue of 6.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.119 billion yuan, up 10.74% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million yuan, down 14% year-on-year and down 36.1% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Coal Business - The coal production and sales have increased due to the joint trial operation of the Hong Er Mine. The company achieved a coal production/sales volume of 14.0454 million/14.0574 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.98%/10.04% [5]. - The average selling price of coal was 431.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.72% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 203.9 yuan, an increase of 4.68% year-on-year [5]. Non-Coal Business - In the first three quarters of 2024, the methanol business saw a significant increase in production and sales, with volumes of 332,500/306,400 tons, up 51.57%/22.59% year-on-year. However, the selling price was 1,844.1 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.17% year-on-year [6]. - The railway business also showed improvement, with a total transport volume of 4.9124 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.84% [6]. Dividend and Growth Potential - The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 48.46%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.4% based on the annualized profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [7]. - By the end of 2023, the company had officially put the Hong Yi Mine (240,000 tons/year) into production and the Hong Er Mine (240,000 tons/year) into trial operation, with a total approved coal production capacity of 19.3 million tons. The company aims to reach a coal production capacity of 30 million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a potential growth of 55% in capacity [7]. Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts that Haohua Energy's total revenue for 2024-2026 will be 9.1 billion, 9.8 billion, and 10.6 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.4 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively. The price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 9.55, 8.41, and 7.66 times [7].