Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Huaxin Securities·2024-10-29 08:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company has faced pressure on performance due to sales collection challenges, with total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 at 4.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.97% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year [1] - The company announced a share repurchase plan, reflecting confidence in its future performance, with plans to repurchase 1.099 to 2.197 million shares, accounting for 0.33%-0.66% of total share capital, at a maximum price of 91.00 yuan per share [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.97% year-on-year, and a net profit of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 was 67.90%, down 7.38 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 1.189 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.72% year-on-year, with a net profit of 78 million yuan, down 79.22% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's liquor revenue was 4.035 billion yuan, down 16.68% year-on-year, with mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues at 3.498 billion yuan and 537 million yuan, respectively [1] - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial sales for Q1-Q3 was 1.256 billion yuan and 2.779 billion yuan, respectively, with provincial sales accounting for 31.13% of total revenue, showing an increase in provincial revenue share [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from growth in its mid-range and high-end products, with a long-term positive outlook on brand strength in the sub-high-end market. The EPS forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.83, 3.83, and 4.83 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 18, and 14 times [3][5]