Anjoy food(603345) 华福证券·2024-10-29 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 35.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.76% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability due to declining gross margins and rising expenses, with a gross margin of 19.93% in Q3 2024, down 2.04 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand following the Chinese New Year, supported by macroeconomic policies and improved consumer cash flow [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 110.77 billion yuan, up 7.84% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.47 billion yuan, down 6.65% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s revenue breakdown for Q3 2024 shows significant growth in the new retail channel, which increased by 95.93% year-on-year, while the traditional distribution channels experienced mixed results [2]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 14.62 billion yuan, 17.03 billion yuan, and 19.32 billion yuan for the respective years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18x for 2024, 16x for 2025, and 14x for 2026 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.98 yuan, 5.80 yuan, and 6.59 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5].