Yuanxing Energy(SZ:000683) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-29 09:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][16]. Core Views - The company has shown stable performance with significant growth in net profit and revenue, driven by the advantages of the Alashan natural soda project [1][6]. - The natural soda industry is expected to stabilize in pricing due to macroeconomic policies stimulating downstream demand, despite a current oversupply situation [2][12]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the natural soda sector, with production costs significantly lower than traditional methods, indicating a strong profit margin [2][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.04%, and a net profit of 1.805 billion yuan, up 19.84% [1][6]. - In Q3 2024, revenue reached 3.303 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.13% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 596 million yuan, marking a 31.3% increase [1][6]. - The company's projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 2.486 billion, 2.821 billion, and 3.208 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 76.3%, 13.5%, and 13.7% respectively [16][19]. Industry Outlook - The natural soda market is currently characterized by an oversupply, but with recent macroeconomic policy support, prices are expected to stabilize [2][12]. - The company is set to benefit from the upcoming second phase of the Alashan project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, further enhancing production capacity [15][16]. - The urea market is experiencing price fluctuations, but strong support is anticipated in Q4 due to high inventory and operational rates [15][16].